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The way to play the soccer market is to open accounts with European bookmakers as the real difference in opinion between UK and European bookmakers is a good source of sure bets. They both have strong opinions on this sport. They’re going to price up the sport within their own country as well as the matches in foreign countries. Anything to generate a profit.
Italy, for example is much more soccer crazy than the UK, with newspapers dedicated to the sport. Everybody thinks they know best on this subject and egos get in the way of sensible pricing. This is very good news for us. The European bookmakers can be opinionated and where because they could very well have greater detailed familiarity with the comings and goings in their own countries they may be relying on third parties to collate information on their own foreign counterparts.
One good starting place is in midweek games between teams of different nationalities. There is a tendency in punters to get patriotic with regards to events where the opposition are ‘foreign’. The probability of the home team get talked up and the odds could get skewed in their favour as the load of cash is overly wagered within their direction.
With that in mind the big bookmakers offer an early price, they’re going to often advertise it in the national papers and playing online casino also by and large stick to it. This means that a bench mark has been set and subsequent bookmakers might take an alternative opinion or try to tempt money within their direction by offering different odds. If this were to happen the arb could be accessible for a considerable amount of time.
You can find always discrepancies in odds but clearly bookmakers tend to stick around the exact same price. They figure there is safety in numbers. But remember they can be ‘guessing’ what the odds should be the same as you and me. They are basing their opinion on past experience and they might utilise statistical formulae nevertheless they still need to form an opinion on the likely outcome.
Also they can get it wrong as well as other firms can take a totally different view of the outcome of a game. A totally different view will only end in a slight variation in the odds but this could be sufficient to offer a sure bet profit.
Another approach is to start with the better obscure games in eg. the Spanish, Italian or Norweigen lower divisions. Also they can have quite profitable discrepancies. They are going to be covered by a range of different bookmakers all over Europe. This does however add a complication. Although quite easy for finding arbs, the mere proven fact that you focus on these obscure matches will throw up the possibility that you are going to get spotted by the bookmakers if you concentrate your action here.
Also they’re going to be reluctant to accept high maximum bets on matches where they have done little research. On the other hand it’s a training ground for arb spotting and may gain you valuable experience. You will need to weigh up the pros and cons of this strategy.
This really is a fairly obscure place of betting and if someone was to check your account over a range of months and found solely these obscure foreign matches on your account it could ring alarm bells. The motto here is to dilute the bets by betting on as a variety of sort of sport and events as it can be in order that your accounts have varied bets on them. This should not be a problem as numerous sports are great for sure bets.
The better prominent European ties may also produce arbs and they are less more likely to attract attention to you as well as the maximum bets will be higher.
As before you can’t control whether or not the individual bets win or lose but soccer is a 3 way result and so 2 losing bets to one winning you can be useful on your account. The point here is the fact that not many individuals are interested in the lower European divisions and it may become clear that the betting pattern is just a little unusual. This really is especially true if your bets towards the maximum permitted.
Injury news may be a profitable area in soccer. Consider it. If a player fails a late fitness test on a Saturday and he is the teams star striker then this tends to substantially affect their chances. Recently Alan Shearer turned up to play a premiership game for Newcastle but was declared unfit to play at the very last minute. Newcastle were soundly beaten. I am not saying this wouldn’t have happened, I do not know. However the odds on the game clearly changed the minute this news broke.
Some bookmakers were alert to this and altered prices as the cash poured in for the opposition. Some were slow to react or would not have reacted at all. Either way arbs were available. This sort of last minute frantic activity is particularly keen on the betting exchanges like Betfair in which you can act as the punter or the bookmaker (lay bets).
You may find injury news through one of the many soccer websites. Alternatively satellite television channels always have comprehensive news coverage of all the games and are quick to offer any ‘off the press’ news. Slowly the bookmakers’ prices will all change, although not all at the exact same time, only one by one so creating sure bets.
In this particular scenario where costs are changing bet on the old price first. The new price will be the one that wont change the old price is the one that is about to and so might be lost if you’re not quick.