Erika Haygood sordu 3 ay önce
Smart sports betting, and football betting primarily, is in accordance with the skills of the teams involved rather than random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is what makes an effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the other hand, sports betting – as well as poker – is not based on random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. It means that the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most good online casino gambling site strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. Within the long run, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken impression that particular results are “due” based upon previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. For instance, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that what this means is tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, in reality, the chances that the next coin toss will end in tails is precisely the exact same regardless of the number of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most knowledge of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” based upon probabilities. There is no sound mathematical probability that any specific football team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The major point of these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That is not to say that random chance is not involved, of course it is. Any team could make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Nevertheless the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question is a lot more more likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor over the long term. Anybody can get lucky occasionally, but if one learns to make intelligent bets based on the skills of the teams involved, one is much more prone to win significant quantities of money over the long run.