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How Exactly To identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the most effective Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and how they give a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, good football online where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any person bookmaker as they’d in theory make sure to lose on the event, they may be “under round” . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don’t offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by that you just can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it’s pretty obvious that the 4 – 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there’s absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could possibly be the top value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That’s your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the chances of each outcome is not due to this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than may be given here where we have been dealing with bookmakers’ margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it’s essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It’s very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is a great one to show the way to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. For this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined use of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.